Isiah Pacheco Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 17, 2024

Updated Dec 25, 2024 5:36 PM EST

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+104/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 134.2 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.6 plays per game.
Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally lead to better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.
Isiah Pacheco has been a key part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 8.7% this year, which ranks him in the 75th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

Isiah Pacheco's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 87.8% to 77.2%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the 6th-best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

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