Isiah Pacheco Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-180/+150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Isiah Pacheco has been a more important option in his offense's passing game this year (8.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (2.2%).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs to run the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Isiah Pacheco's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 100.0% to 75.0%.
The New York Jets linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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