Isiah Pacheco Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-157/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their plays: the 2nd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.3 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
In this contest, Isiah Pacheco is expected by the projection model to find himself in the 83rd percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.5 targets.
Isiah Pacheco's 8.9% Target Rate this season signifies a substantial progression in his air attack utilization over last season's 2.2% mark.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Isiah Pacheco's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 100.0% to 83.7%.
When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's safety corps has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 6th-best in football.

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