Isiah Pacheco Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-165/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 10th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Isiah Pacheco has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among RBs, hauling in a terrific 100.0% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.
Isiah Pacheco's 2.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the worst in the league: 11th percentile for RBs.
Isiah Pacheco has been among the worst pass-game RBs this year, averaging just 0.7 receptions per game while checking in at the 16th percentile among running backs.
The Houston Texans pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (71.4%) to RBs this year (71.4%).

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