Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 61.9% of their chances: the 3rd-highest clip among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 133.2 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
The predictive model expects Isiah Pacheco to notch 3.3 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 81st percentile among RBs.
Isiah Pacheco has been a more integral piece of his team's pass attack this season (8.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (2.2%).

Favors Under

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
Isiah Pacheco has totaled a measly -6.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 10th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Isiah Pacheco's 88.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this season illustrates a a significant reduction in his receiving proficiency over last season's 100.0% rate.

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