Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 12, 2023 11:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the most pass-heavy team in football (69.3% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.
Isiah Pacheco has been a much bigger part of his team's pass attack this season (7.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (2.2%).
Isiah Pacheco's 19.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season reflects a a substantial growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 8.0 figure.
With an impressive 7.4 adjusted yards per target (83rd percentile) this year, Isiah Pacheco ranks as one of the leading pass-catching RBs in football.
Isiah Pacheco's talent in picking up extra yardage have gotten better this season, compiling 9.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 0.00 figure last season.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a heavy 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being called for in this game) typically mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased run volume.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Broncos, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (just 32.4 per game) this year.
When it comes to air yards, Isiah Pacheco ranks in just the 12th percentile among RBs this year, totaling just -5.0 per game.

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