Isiah Pacheco Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 12, 2023 10:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+117/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to accrue 12.4 carries in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack this week (51.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.9% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 34.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends profile as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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