Isiah Pacheco Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -137 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (36.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (22.7% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 4th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 34.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 6th-best group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.