Isaiah McKenzie Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah McKenzie

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 3:00 AM EST

Analysis

Isaiah McKenzie Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.4 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
THE BLITZ projects Isaiah McKenzie to be a more important option in his team's air attack this week (10.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.3% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Isaiah McKenzie has been among the worst WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 1.3 receptions per game while checking in at the 22nd percentile among wideouts.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has conceded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.6%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (64.6%).
The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the 5th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.