Isaiah McKenzie Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah McKenzie

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 20, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah McKenzie Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 68.0% pass rate.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.3 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week's game.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Isaiah McKenzie to be a more important option in his offense's passing game this week (17.3% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.0% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Isaiah McKenzie has been among the weakest WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 1.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 22nd percentile among WRs.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.