Isaiah McKenzie Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Isaiah McKenzie

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah McKenzie

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah McKenzie Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 70.6% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
Isaiah McKenzie has been a more important option in his team's pass attack this year (13.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (5.0%).
Isaiah McKenzie's receiving performance has improved this season, totaling 3.3 yards per game vs a measly 1.5 last season.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Isaiah McKenzie's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 82.9% to 73.9%.
The Miami Dolphins pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-quickest in the league since the start of last season.

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