Isaiah McKenzie Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Isaiah McKenzie

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah McKenzie

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 2, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah McKenzie Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 71.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
Isaiah McKenzie has accrued significantly more air yards this season (30.0 per game) than he did last season (12.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Isaiah McKenzie's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 82.9% to 71.7%.
The New England Patriots defense has surrendered the 7th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 142.0) to wideouts this year.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (62.4%) vs. wide receivers this year (62.4%).
The New England Patriots pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.83 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in the NFL.

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