Isaiah McKenzie Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah McKenzie

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 9, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Isaiah McKenzie Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-117/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 128.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 65.8 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions this week.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
Isaiah McKenzie has posted a measly 12.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 19th percentile among WRs.
Isaiah McKenzie has been among the worst wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 16.0 yards per game while ranking in the 23rd percentile among wide receivers.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus wide receivers since the start of last season, yielding 7.39 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the league.
The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.