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Isaiah McKenzie

Isaiah McKenzie Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 8

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers

Isaiah McKenzie Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+290/-507).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -458 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -507.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Isaiah McKenzie has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which puts him in the 78th percentile among wideouts.

Isaiah McKenzie has compiled quite a few more air yards this season (32.0 per game) than he did last season (12.0 per game).

Isaiah McKenzie's 28.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 9.7.

Isaiah McKenzie ranks in the 94th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.60 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.

Isaiah McKenzie's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 80.1% to 70.7%.

The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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