Isaiah Likely Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Isaiah Likely

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah Likely

TE · New York Giants

Touchdowns

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 1:02 PM EST

Analysis

Isaiah Likely Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+233/-239).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Giants will be rolling out backup QB J.J. McCarthy this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The Giants have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Isaiah Likely has posted many more air yards this season (72.0 per game) than he did last season (19.0 per game).

Favors Under

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Giants, who are favored by 3 points.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Giants to pass on 50.9% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the New York Giants to be the 9th-most run-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 46.1% red zone run rate.
The leading projections forecast Isaiah Likely to be a much smaller part of his team's passing attack near the end zone in this contest (27.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (35.7% in games he has played).
Isaiah Likely's 67.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year indicates a noteworthy decline in his receiving talent over last year's 79.3% mark.

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