Isaiah Likely Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Isaiah Likely

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah Likely

TE · New York Giants

Touchdowns

Houston Texans vs New York Giants · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Isaiah Likely Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-277).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Giants may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more carries) given that they be forced to use backup QB J.J. McCarthy.
This game's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Giants, who are enormous -10-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Giants to be the 8th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The Giants have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.8 plays per game.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Giants to be the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 45.1% red zone run rate.
The projections expect Isaiah Likely to be a much smaller part of his team's passing game near the end zone in this contest (29.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (35.7% in games he has played).
Isaiah Likely's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 79.3% to 68.2%.
The Texans defense has given up the 4th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL to tight ends: 0.17 per game this year.

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