Isaiah Likely Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Isaiah Likely

TE · New York Giants

Touchdowns

New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Isaiah Likely Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+182/-186).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Giants will be rolling out backup quarterback Jameis Winston in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
Our trusted projections expect the Giants to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Giants have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 60.8 plays per game.
After accruing 19.0 air yards per game last year, Isaiah Likely has seen a big uptick this year, currently averaging 70.0 per game.
Isaiah Likely's 61.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 23.1.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Giants as the 5th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 7th-most run-focused team in the league near the goal line (46.7% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Giants.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Saints, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.8 per game) this year.
While Isaiah Likely has been responsible for 40.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much less involved in New York's passing attack near the end zone in this week's contest at 30.1%.
Isaiah Likely's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 79.3% to 70.7%.