Isaiah Likely Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Isaiah Likely

TE · New York Giants

Touchdowns

New York Giants vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Isaiah Likely Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+280/-335).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Giants will be starting backup quarterback Jameis Winston in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
In regards to air yards, Isaiah Likely grades out in the lofty 78th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 24.0 per game.
Isaiah Likely's 29.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the best in the league: 75th percentile for tight ends.
Since the start of last season, the poor Cardinals pass defense has been gouged for a massive 78.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.
The Cardinals defense has been gouged for the 5th-most TDs through the air in the NFL to TEs: 0.65 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the New York Giants to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.2% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league near the end zone (48.2% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New York Giants.
At the moment, the 4th-slowest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Giants.
The predictive model expects Isaiah Likely to be a much smaller part of his team's pass attack near the end zone in this contest (26.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (40.0% in games he has played).
Isaiah Likely's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 79.3% to 68.6%.