Isaiah Likely Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Isaiah Likely

TE · New York Giants

Touchdowns

New York Giants vs Tennessee Titans · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 2:33 PM EST

Analysis

Isaiah Likely Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+320/-360).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Giants may take to the air less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling out backup QB Jameis Winston.
While Isaiah Likely has garnered 18.6% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of New York's offense near the goal line in this contest at 26.1%.
In regards to air yards, Isaiah Likely ranks in the towering 78th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, totaling a superb 24.0 per game.
Isaiah Likely slots into the 76th percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) with a superb 28.8 figure since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the weak Titans defense has allowed a whopping 74.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 3rd-biggest rate in football.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New York Giants to pass on 50.9% of their opportunities: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
At the present time, the 9th-most run-centric offense in the NFL in the red zone (46.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Giants.
At the present time, the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the New York Giants.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Tennessee Titans, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.3 per game) since the start of last season.