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Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Rams

Isaiah Likely Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+580/-740).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -680 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -740.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling out backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The Ravens are a big 7-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The Rams defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (36.0 per game) this year.

Isaiah Likely has compiled a staggering 28.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 84th percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the least pass-focused offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.4% pass rate.

The Baltimore Ravens have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 44.8 plays per game.

Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being projected in this game) generally mean lessened passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher run volume.

The model projects Isaiah Likely to be much less involved in his team's air attack near the goal line in this week's game (11.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (20.6% in games he has played).

When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Baltimore Ravens grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.

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