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Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans

Isaiah Likely Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+550/-760).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -830 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -760.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Ravens will be forced to use backup quarterback Cooper Rush this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

When it comes to air yards, Isaiah Likely grades out in the towering 84th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 29.0 per game.

Isaiah Likely slots into the 78th percentile for TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with an astounding 28.0 mark since the start of last season.

With a fantastic ratio of 0.40 per game through the air (94th percentile), Isaiah Likely ranks among the top receiving TD-scorers in the NFL among TEs last year.

The Houston Texans safeties profile as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 5th-most run-centric team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 48.2% red zone run rate.

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are projected by the model to run just 63.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The Ravens have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 47.0 plays per game.

Our trusted projections expect Isaiah Likely to be much less involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (11.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (21.0% in games he has played).

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the lowest level in the NFL versus the Texans defense since the start of last season (64.1% Adjusted Completion%).

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