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Isaiah Likely Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+255/-295).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +280 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +255.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Ravens are predicted by the model to run 66.4 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.Isaiah Likely has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 13.3% this year, which puts him in the 77th percentile when it comes to tight ends.Isaiah Likely's 100.0% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a meaningful gain in his receiving prowess over last year's 77.4% figure.This year, the feeble Minnesota Vikings defense has yielded a whopping 0.62 TDs through the air per game to opposing TEs: the 6th-biggest rate in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their typical game plan.Right now, the 5th-most run-centric offense in football near the goal line (47.7% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Baltimore Ravens.The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Ravens this year (a lowly 50.1 per game on average).Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Minnesota Vikings, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 28.6 per game) this year.After accumulating 31.0 air yards per game last season, Isaiah Likely has seen a big decrease this season, now sitting at 11.0 per game.
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