Isaiah Likely Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Isaiah Likely

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah Likely

TE · New York Giants

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 1:02 PM EST

Analysis

Isaiah Likely Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-108/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Giants will be rolling out backup QB J.J. McCarthy this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The Giants have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Isaiah Likely has been used less as a potential target this year (86.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (58.3%).

Favors Under

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Giants, who are favored by 3 points.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Giants to pass on 50.9% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Isaiah Likely's 67.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year indicates a noteworthy decline in his receiving talent over last year's 79.3% mark.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (71.6%) vs. TEs this year (71.6%).

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