Isaiah Likely Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Isaiah Likely

TE · New York Giants

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs New York Giants · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 21, 2026 8:12 PM EST

Analysis

Isaiah Likely Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.0 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 4.0 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Giants being a giant -7-point underdog in this week's game.
The New York Giants have run the 6th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a massive 59.7 plays per game.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may fall-off.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.
The model projects Isaiah Likely to garner 6.8 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the New York Giants as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 57.6% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have just 125.4 plays on offense called: the lowest number on the slate this week.
Since the start of last season, the tough Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded a meager 70.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 7th-lowest rate in football.