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Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Commanders

Isaiah Likely Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 8th-most plays in the league have been called by the Ravens this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).

Our trusted projections expect Isaiah Likely to garner 3.8 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Isaiah Likely's 35.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 16.0.

When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Baltimore Ravens ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.

With a stellar 3.2 adjusted receptions per game (81st percentile) this year, Isaiah Likely rates among the leading tight ends in the pass game in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Ravens are a massive 8-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Ravens to be the least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 48.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have just 125.6 plays on offense called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

Isaiah Likely's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 82.1% to 76.9%.

Since the start of last season, the imposing Washington Commanders defense has yielded a feeble 71.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 8th-best rate in the NFL.

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