Isaiah Likely Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Isaiah Likely

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah Likely

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah Likely Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-106/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the projection model to run 66.7 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
The predictive model expects Isaiah Likely to total 4.5 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The model projects Isaiah Likely to be a more important option in his team's pass game this week (16.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.7% in games he has played).

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Ravens, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points.
The projections expect the Ravens as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Isaiah Likely's 1.6 adjusted receptions per game this year signifies a noteable regression in his receiving talent over last year's 2.6 rate.

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