Isaiah Likely Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Isaiah Likely

TE · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 1:02 PM EST

Analysis

Isaiah Likely Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-104/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -488 before it was bet up to 43.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants will be rolling out backup quarterback Jameis Winston in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Giants, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
This week, Isaiah Likely is expected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 97th percentile when it comes to TEs with 7.3 targets.
After totaling 19.0 air yards per game last year, Isaiah Likely has shown good development this year, currently pacing 59.0 per game.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Giants to pass on 52.9% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Giants to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and increased ground volume.
While Isaiah Likely has earned 31.5% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much less involved in New York's passing attack in this week's contest at 25.0%.
Isaiah Likely's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 79.3% to 65.1%.