Isaiah Likely Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Isaiah Likely

TE · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Isaiah Likely Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-104/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 37.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Giants will be starting backup quarterback Jameis Winston in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
With an impressive 62.4% Route Participation Rate (76th percentile) since the start of last season, Isaiah Likely stands as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads in football.
Our trusted projections expect Isaiah Likely to garner 7.1 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
In regards to air yards, Isaiah Likely grades out in the lofty 78th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 24.0 per game.
Isaiah Likely's 1.53 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a substantial gain in his efficiency in space over last year's 0.0% mark.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the New York Giants to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.2% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 4th-slowest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Giants.
Isaiah Likely's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 79.3% to 68.6%.
Isaiah Likely's pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this year, accumulating a mere 6.13 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.28 mark last year.