Isaiah Likely Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah Likely

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah Likely Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Isaiah Likely to accumulate 5.7 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Isaiah Likely to be a less important option in his offense's passing game this week (7.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (13.3% in games he has played).
Isaiah Likely has put up a monstrous 26.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 79th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a big 9.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
Isaiah Likely has been among the most unreliable receivers in football among TEs, completing a measly 65.5% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 15th percentile.
Isaiah Likely has been among the worst TEs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 2nd percentile.