Isaiah Likely Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Isaiah Likely

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah Likely Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+330/-620).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +338 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +330.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in the NFL (76.2%) vs. TEs this year (76.2%).
The Carolina Panthers safeties grade out as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have incorporated play action on 29.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a massive 13-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 56.2 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.