Isaiah Hodgins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Isaiah Hodgins

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah Hodgins

WR · New York Giants

Receptions

New York Giants vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah Hodgins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-195/+165).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 131.6 total plays run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.
The Patriots defense has been something of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, New England's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the New York Giants as the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Isaiah Hodgins's 17.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 36.0.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the New York Giants grades out as the worst in the NFL this year.
Isaiah Hodgins's pass-catching performance diminished this season, compiling a mere 1.6 adjusted receptions compared to 3.7 last season.
Isaiah Hodgins's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 86.0% to 61.3%.

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