Irv Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Irv Smith

NFL · Player Props

Irv Smith

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

Irv Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-155/+115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Irv Smith Jr. has run a route on 59.1% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The leading projections forecast Irv Smith Jr. to accumulate 5.0 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among TEs.
With a remarkable 3.0 adjusted catches per game (81st percentile) since the start of last season, Irv Smith Jr. ranks among the top tight ends in the pass game in football.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are projected by the model to call just 61.2 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.8 plays per game.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Irv Smith Jr.'s 56.1% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a a material diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last season's 73.2% rate.

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