Irv Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

My Account Log Out

reorder

Irv Smith

NFL · Player Props

Irv Smith

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Irv Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to use backup quarterback Joe Burrow in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith Jr. to notch 4.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among TEs.
Irv Smith has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 12.7% since the start of last season, which places him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.
Irv Smith Jr. has been among the top pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 3.1 receptions per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (65.2%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (65.2%).

More Irv Smith Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow