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Irv Smith

Irv Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Irv Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-170/+140).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith to garner 5.0 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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