Irv Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Irv Smith

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Irv Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to use backup quarterback Joe Burrow in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith Jr. to notch 4.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among TEs.
Irv Smith has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 12.7% since the start of last season, which places him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.
Irv Smith has garnered a colossal 9.7% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 79th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Irv Smith Jr. has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in football among tight ends, averaging a lowly 5.82 yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 11th percentile.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (65.2%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (65.2%).