Irv Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Irv Smith

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Irv Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-101/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith to total 5.3 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Irv Smith has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the league among tight ends, averaging a lowly 5.35 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 10th percentile.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.