Irv Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Irv Smith

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Irv Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (+104/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.62 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith to earn 4.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among TEs.
Irv Smith has been a big part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 12.8% this year, which ranks him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Irv Smith has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a mere 59.8% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile.
Irv Smith has been among the least efficient receivers in the league among TEs, averaging a mere 5.80 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 25th percentile.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.53 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.