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Irv Smith

Irv Smith Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings

Irv Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.9% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith to notch 4.8 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.

Irv Smith has accounted for a colossal 13.2% of his offense's air yards this year: 91st percentile among TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Vikings are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Irv Smith has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among TEs, catching a mere 44.8% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 7th percentile.

Irv Smith has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging a measly 4.65 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 10th percentile.

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