Irv Smith Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Irv Smith

NFL · Player Props

Irv Smith

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Irv Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+350/-550).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.62 seconds per snap.
Irv Smith has put up a monstrous 29.0 air yards per game this year: 86th percentile among tight ends.
Irv Smith's 27.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 83rd percentile for tight ends.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (77.3%) to tight ends this year (77.3%).
The Miami Dolphins defense has allowed the 9th-most TDs through the air in the NFL to TEs: 0.40 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Irv Smith has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a mere 59.8% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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