Ian Thomas Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Ian Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Ian Thomas

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Touchdowns

San Francisco 49ers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 4:22 PM EST

Analysis

Ian Thomas Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+2400/-2464).

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Raiders being a massive -9.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
The leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders as the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
With a 58.2% rate of passing the ball in the red zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 9th-most pass-focused team in the league in this respect has been the Las Vegas Raiders.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
Ian Thomas checks in as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends, completing an exceptional 100.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Raiders are projected by the predictive model to run just 62.1 total plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
Ian Thomas has been not been very involved his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which places him in the 1st percentile when it comes to TEs.
When talking about pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Las Vegas Raiders grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year.

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