Ian Thomas Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Ian Thomas

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Touchdowns

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 8:32 PM EST

Analysis

Ian Thomas Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+2244/-3474).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -5-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Raiders to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
Ian Thomas is positioned as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a remarkable 100.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

The Raiders have called the 4th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 53.0 plays per game.
Ian Thomas has been been lightly used his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks in the 1st percentile among tight ends.
As it relates to air yards, Ian Thomas ranks in the lowly 19th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, averaging just 2.0 per game.
Ian Thomas has been in just the 24th percentile among tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with a subpar 4.8 mark since the start of last season.
The Raiders offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.