Ian Thomas Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Ian Thomas

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Touchdowns

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 7:57 PM EST

Analysis

Ian Thomas Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1776/-2579).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is suggested by the Raiders being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
The model projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
Ian Thomas profiles as one of the best possession receivers in football among TEs, completing an excellent 100.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

Right now, the 8th-most run-oriented team in football near the goal line (46.8% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Las Vegas Raiders have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 52.8 plays per game.
Opposing offenses teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the New Orleans Saints, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 28.9 per game) since the start of last season.
With a feeble 0.0% Red Zone Target% (1st percentile) this year, Ian Thomas has been as one of the tight ends with the highest volume near the end zone in the league.
In regards to air yards, Ian Thomas grades out in the lowly 19th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accruing just 2.0 per game.