Ian Thomas Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Ian Thomas

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 7:37 PM EST

Analysis

Ian Thomas Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+2244/-3474).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -2041 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -3474.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a big 7-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally correlate with better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume.
With a fantastic 100.0% Adjusted Completion% (100th percentile) last year, Ian Thomas stands among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among TEs.
When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Los Angeles's collection of LBs has been terrible since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Raiders to be the 5th-most run-centric offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 46.3% red zone run rate.
The projections expect the Raiders to run the 7th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 4th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Raiders since the start of last season (a mere 52.8 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Chargers defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in football.
Ian Thomas has been been lightly used his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 1st percentile among tight ends.