Ian Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Ian Thomas

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Ian Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The model projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
At only 27.60 seconds per play, the Las Vegas Raiders offense comes in as the 10th-fastest paced in the league (adjusted for context) this year.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
With a terrific 100.0% Adjusted Completion Rate (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Ian Thomas stands among the best possession receivers in football when it comes to TEs.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Los Angeles Rams, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 32.5 per game) this year.
Ian Thomas has run a route on 12.2% of his team's passing plays this year, placing him in the 23rd percentile among TEs.
In regards to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Las Vegas Raiders profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year.
This year, the formidable Los Angeles Rams defense has given up a measly 58.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. tight ends this year, surrendering 4.48 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.