Ian Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Ian Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Ian Thomas

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 3:22 PM EST

Analysis

Ian Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.
With an excellent 100.0% Adjusted Catch Rate (100th percentile) last year, Ian Thomas ranks among the best possession receivers in football among tight ends.
Last year, the weak Dolphins defense has conceded a staggering 60.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 7th-most in football.
Last year, the poor Miami Dolphins defense has yielded the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing TEs: a massive 0.00 YAC.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Raiders, who are favored by 3 points.
Right now, the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the league (58.7% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Las Vegas Raiders.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Raiders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 61.0 offensive plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
The 4th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Raiders last year (a lowly 52.4 per game on average).
With a sizeable 15.4% Route Participation Rate (21st percentile) last year, Ian Thomas has been among the tight ends with the most usage in the league.

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