Ian Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Ian Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Ian Thomas

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Ian Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-110/-119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be starting backup QB PJ Walker in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Ian Thomas's ability to pick up extra yardage has gotten a boost this season, totaling 10.67 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 4.00 figure last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Completion% in the NFL (81.6%) vs. tight ends this year (81.6%).

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
Ian Thomas has been less involved as a potential target this year (33.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (44.3%).

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