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Ian Thomas

Ian Thomas Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers

Ian Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -129.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

The Panthers are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.

Ian Thomas has been a much bigger part of his offense's air attack this season (10.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (5.0%).

Ian Thomas has accounted for a colossal 9.4% of his offense's air yards this year: 83rd percentile among tight ends.

The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.

Ian Thomas's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 64.8% to 51.0%.

Ian Thomas's receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, totaling just 5.35 yards-per-target vs a 6.53 rate last season.

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