Ian Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Ian Thomas

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Ian Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.
Ian Thomas has been responsible for a monstrous 11.4% of his team's air yards this year: 88th percentile among tight ends.
Ian Thomas has been among the leading TEs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a stellar 6.17 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 78th percentile.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has given up the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (86.7%) vs. tight ends this year (86.7%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Ian Thomas's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 64.8% to 58.6%.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has conceded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 41.0) versus tight ends since the start of last season.