Hunter Renfrow Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Hunter Renfrow

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 3:51 AM EST

Analysis

Hunter Renfrow Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Raiders are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their typical approach.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.8 per game) this year.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all air attack stats across the board.
Hunter Renfrow profiles as one of the best possession receivers in the league, catching a fantastic 76.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 87th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The model projects the Raiders to be the 3rd-least pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 55.9% pass rate.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Raiders are forecasted by the model to run only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (a measly 53.9 per game on average).
Hunter Renfrow's 15.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 30.7.
Hunter Renfrow's 2.2 adjusted receptions per game this season marks an impressive drop-off in his receiving skills over last season's 3.6 mark.