Hunter Renfrow Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Hunter Renfrow

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Renfrow

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

Hunter Renfrow Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+140/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling out backup QB Jarrett Stidham this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Raiders are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.19 seconds per snap.
Hunter Renfrow has been a much smaller piece of his team's pass attack this season (14.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (21.3%).
Hunter Renfrow's receiving performance has tailed off this year, accumulating a mere 3.3 yards per game compared to 5.9 last year.
Hunter Renfrow's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 82.5% to 69.7%.

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